Internet search trends mirror seasonal changes in CVD
Internet searches for terms related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) spiked in winter months in Australia and the United States, according to a study published in Mayo Clinic Proceedings. The search results were consistent with previously reported seasonal variations in CVD, suggesting they could eventually be used to predict disease incidence at the population level.
Researchers led by Nilay Kumar, MD, with the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine, searched Google’s publicly available relative search volumes (RSVs) for CVD-related queries over a 10-year period. They found the RSVs were 15 percent higher in the U.S. and 45 percent higher in Australia during the winter months compared to the summer months. Spring and fall search volumes were also higher than summer RSVs.
In addition, there was a moderate to strong positive correlation between search query volumes and state-level CVD mortality; states with the most heart-related deaths tended to have more Google searches for cardiovascular-related terms.
“A better understanding of temporal and geographic variation in viewer interest may help with targeted dissemination of valid health care information by authoritative sources, as well as managed health care organizations with interests and incentives of having healthier populations,” Kumar and colleagues wrote. “Second, passively generated search volume data could serve as a proxy for measuring population-level behaviors and interests, which in turn may be positively related to disease activity in the community.”
The researchers said there were 2.4 billion Internet users worldwide in 2012, but acknowledged this type of information could be less useful for countries with lower proportions of users. They also cautioned that “passively generated ‘big data’ must never be considered to be a substitute for, but rather an adjunct to, validated data measurements by traditional surveillance mechanisms.”
Kumar et al.—as well as the authors of an accompanying editorial—believe Internet search data plus artificial intelligence could be leveraged in the future to generate real-time predictions of CVD for specific populations.
“The 21st century ‘canary in the coal mine’ will not be an unfortunate caged bird used to alert humans to environmental toxins but instead will be a virtual reality program triggered by individual Web searches and social media postings collected in aggregate and analyzed by public health authorities to facilitate the early detection of symptoms and diseases gathered on a nearly instantaneous basis,” Mayo Clinic cardiologists Joseph G. Murphy, MD, and R. Scott Wright, MD, wrote in the editorial.
“The use of such a program would allow better targeting of resources and tools designed to reduce morbidity and mortality and empower individuals to live healthier and more productive lives.”
Daniel joined TriMed’s Chicago editorial team in 2017 as a Cardiovascular Business writer. He previously worked as a writer for daily newspapers in North Dakota and Indiana.