New risk score predicts number of cardiovascular-related deaths throughout US
Researchers have developed a new risk score that predicts mortality rates from heart attacks and strokes for every county in the United States, sharing their findings in the Annals of Family Medicine.
The team tracked data from 3,026 counties overall, using “neighborhood socioeconomic status, food/lifestyle environment” and other factors to predict age-adjusted mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. The scoring method was developed using 50% of their data and validated with the other 50%.
The risk score was found to be considerably accurate, providing results that matched the work of prior researchers, and the numbers will be updated once the latest U.S. census data is finalized and made public.
“The risk score could be very useful to policymakers and public health leaders,” co-author Arch Mainous III, PhD, a faculty member at the University of Florida’s College of Public Health and Health Professions, said in a statement. “As with all population health initiatives, the first step is to segment the population and determine where action is needed and importantly, what type of action. This measure identifies places that need help.”
Co-author Young-Rock Hong, PhD, MPH, also of the UF College of Public Health and Health Professions, noted that the team wants to use a similar strategy to explore COVID-19 outcomes for counties throughout the U.S.
“We need a comprehensive understanding of the interconnected pathways of social determinants of health factors to COVID-19 in order to better inform our health system and improve COVID-19 preparedness and response,” he said.
The full Annals of Family Medicine analysis is available here.
Michael has more than 18 years of experience as a professional writer and editor. He has written at length about cardiology, radiology, artificial intelligence and other key healthcare topics.