When demand outpaces supply: 4 key facts about the looming physician shortage
The United States is expected to experience a colossal physician shortage in the years ahead, and new research published by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) suggests it will be felt in a wide variety of specialties.
According to the report, the country should anticipate a shortage of up to 139,000 physicians by 2033 as the demand for physicians outpaces the supply.
“This annual analysis continues to show that our country will face a significant shortage of physicians in the coming years,” David J. Skorton, MD, AAMC president and CEO, said in a statement. “The gap between the country’s increasing healthcare demands and the supply of doctors to adequately respond has become more evident as we continue to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The challenge of having enough doctors to serve our communities will get even worse as the nation’s population continues to grow and age.”
These are 4 key facts from the AAMC report:
1. The shortage could impact all aspects of patient care
Primary care is expected to experience a shortage of 21,000 to 55,000 physicians, and the report separated other specialties in three specific categories.
Medical specialties—a category that includes cardiology, critical care, dermatology, endocrinology, oncology and more—could experience a shortage of 9,000 to 17,000 physicians. Surgical specialties, on the other hand, could experience a shortage of 17,000 to 28,000 physicians.
The third category, “other specialties,” covers emergency medicine, neurology, pathology, radiology and more. That group could be short anywhere from 17,000 to 41,000 physicians.
“Despite the dizzying pace of debate around the organization, regulation, finance, and technology of health care delivery, the essential drivers of physician supply and demand are changing much less dramatically,” according to the report.
2. Healthier patients will not necessarily help the situation
If population health improves in the years ahead—including “a modest reduction in excess body weight” and reduced smoking rates—it will actually make the looming shortage even more severe.
“This appears to be somewhat of a paradox—that improving population health leads to greater demand for physicians,” according to the report. “Our modeling suggests that improved health will reduce mortality and physician demand slightly in the initial years because the population is healthier. However, the reduction in mortality will lead to a larger and older population to support, which will increase demand for physicians.”
3. More physicians are necessary to reduce healthcare disparities
The AAMC report estimates that another 74,000 to 145,000 physicians would be required “to bring rates of care for currently underserved populations up to the rates for populations facing fewer sociodemographic, economic and geographic barriers to care.” This was a key focus of the report, with “a change in approach” leading to higher (but more accurate) estimates than previous years.
4. Physicians plan to retire earlier than researchers previously believed
The AAMC surveyed 6,000 physicians and observed that physicians are planning on retiring earlier than expected.
“Possible explanations … include a temporary phenomenon tied to strong economic conditions through the end of 2019 and a more permanent trend linked to physician burnout,” according to the report.
The full analysis, prepared by IIHS Markit, is available on the AAMC website. Data was gathered before the start of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Michael has more than 18 years of experience as a professional writer and editor. He has written at length about cardiology, radiology, artificial intelligence and other key healthcare topics.